Forecasting Model for Coffee Bean Prices

Abstract

The objective of this study was to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the coffee bean prices. The data gathered from the website of Office of agricultural economics during January, 2005 to August, 2018 of 164 values were used and divided into 2 sets. The first set had 156 values from January, 2005 to December, 2017 for constructing the forecasting models by Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, and damped trend exponential smoothing method. The second set had 8 values from January to August, 2018 for comparing the accuracy of the forecasts via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. Research findings indicated that for all forecasting methods that had been studied, the most accurated method was damped trend exponential smoothing method.